PlanB 預言 : 本月比特幣將迎「單日萬點 - 數位貨幣

By Ethan
at 2021-11-07T15:59
at 2021-11-07T15:59
Table of Contents
PlanB 預言 : 本月比特幣將迎「單日萬點漲幅」;巨鯨拋售仍難撼 60K 防線
出比特幣 S2F 模型的匿名分析師 PlanB 11 月 5 日再度出聲,表示在未來幾周,比特幣
(BTC)將可能迎來單日超過萬元的超級漲幅。與此同時,巨鯨們正大量拋售 BTC、卻仍
無法撼動 6 萬美元支撐位。
PlanB 在推特上詢問粉絲:
你各位準備好迎接單日成長 1 萬的蠟燭了嗎?
單日漲萬元說何來?
PlanB 的 BTC 預測源於他提出的庫存流量比模型(S2F),如動區先前報導,該模型以
BTC 庫存(供應量)除以流量(年產出),用以量化稀缺性,從而對幣價做出預測。
S2F 模型曾準確預測 BTC 達到 5.5 萬美元的時間點,另外也陸續命中今年 8~10 月的表
現(仍有些微價差),而若根據該模型的預測,11 月的 BTC 最低點應在 9.8 萬美元左
右,比現價足足高了 63%。
不少人認為 BTC 要在現有的 60K 無來由大漲 60% 很困難,對此 PlanB 則整理了歷年
BTC 跳躍式大漲的幅度,指出 60% 的漲幅還只是基本標配:
2019 年 5 月 +62%
2017 年 8 月 +66%
2017 年 5 月 +66%
2013 年 11 月 +451%
2013 年 10 月 +61%
2013 年 3 月 +181%
2013 年 2 月 +63%
– 歷年驚人漲幅皆達 60% | 圖源:PlanB –
PlanB 對自己的預測極具信心,在 Youtube 頻道 Anthony Pompliano 受訪時他曾表示如
果 BTC 在年底前還低於十萬美元:
我會非常驚訝。
PlanB 稱他不只使用 S2F 模型,還搭配了分析鏈上信號、和尋找比特幣最低可能價格的
地板模型才做出此預測。
延伸閱讀:S2F模型PlanB:BTC年底如果低於100,000,我會非常非常驚訝
巨鯨拋售仍難撼 BTC 6 萬美元防線
與此同時,鏈上數據分析平台 CryptoQuant 的 CEO Ki Young Ju 也公布數據,表示從
10 月中旬開始,巨鯨便將手頭的 BTC 在各大加密貨幣交易所脫手,拋售的量甚至大到占
據某個小時交易量的 90%。
然而不管這幾條巨鯨如何拋售,BTC 的價位都穩穩站在 6 萬美元之上,且各大交易所的
BTC 儲備量持續減少,顯見多方看漲力道強勁。
延伸閱讀:BTC守住6萬美元支撐|外媒分析 : 比特幣朝 9 萬鎂邁進,短期走勢參考 5
大關鍵
– 巨鯨傾銷仍難撼幣價 | 圖源:CryptoQuant –
儘管一片看好 BTC 成長潛力,但也有人持相反意見。
CNBC 知名財經節目《瘋狂錢潮》的主持人克瑞莫 (Jim Cramer)即是一例,克瑞莫以「
博傻理論」形容加密貨幣市場、表示永遠會有傻瓜來接盤:
我購買 BTC 或 ETH 不是用來抵沖通膨,
事實上我是在賭博、賭的是大眾的心裡,
除了很多人認為「它會漲」而試圖買低賣高之外,
我想不到為什麼這些東西會上漲。
至截稿前 BTC 價格收在 61,025.93 美元,持續在 60~64K 間震盪。
https://reurl.cc/OkDpgr
planB預測11月底前比特幣9.8萬美元 預測專家怎麼看
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數位貨幣
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