Re: [心得]比特幣--下一個鬱金香泡沫?或是新時代 - 數位貨幣
By Aaliyah
at 2019-06-29T22:34
at 2019-06-29T22:34
Table of Contents
目前看了各位高手在板上的分享
小弟也來說說自己的看法
先說結論
我認為BTC只能算是investment vehicle
既不能成為coin也無法store of value
在短期也就是減半之前
會有一波炒作潮
這一波過去後就真的是衰退的開始
無法成為coin的理由就不用多說了
那高昂的手續費無法支付日常的民生消費
在一般大眾衡量一件物品的昂貴或便宜
只會以新台幣或美金來衡量
而不是多少satoshi
至於為何無法成為store of value呢?
***因為比特幣打不贏黃金***
大家可能會認為我再亂講
明明黃金有的優點比特幣都有(缺稀性)
甚至黃金沒有的優點
比特幣也都有(易於分割或轉移)
怎麼可能比特幣打不過黃金
且聽我娓娓道來
我理解這件事的角度如下:
在這地球上的資產配置量是有一定的額度的
假設是100兆美元好了,這100兆美元是所有不動產+股票+債券+貴金屬+原物料換算成美金的價格
而這100兆美元的分配率會隨著景氣而流動
比如說
景氣好時股票市值高
景氣差時債券市值高
*景氣崩盤時黃金價格高(這點很重要,容後述)
除非發生了科技或生產技術的重大變革
比如蒸汽機或火車或網路的發明
導致地球上經濟規模有數量級的躍升
地球上的資產配置額度才會有所上升
(比如蒸汽機的發明帶動整個經濟的繁榮,GDP上升後,資產總額從100兆美元上升成1000兆)
目前比特幣的發明
並沒有造成整個經濟的規模有數量級的提升
(或許區塊鏈可以,但不是比特幣本身)
也就是說目前地球上的資產總額基本不變
所以比特幣如果真的要to the moon
他必須從其他的資產吸價值過來
從誰身上吸呢?
就是和他有類似角色的黃金上來吸
(比特幣市值升,黃金市值貶)
但是,but
事情最為重要就是這個but
***比特幣無法從黃金上吸價值過來***
簡單說這是一場
金融巨頭+政府vs網路怪客的戰爭
因為目前掌握黃金最多的就是各國政府
和各大金融巨頭
今天比特幣如果能成為交易媒介的話
那這股力量將如大江大海吞噬一切
當一般大眾衡量物價的便宜或昂貴
是以多少satoshi而不是多少台幣或美元時
比特幣將成為主流資產
但是如果僅僅是store of value
當比特幣要吸黃金的價值過來時
(造成比特幣升值,黃金貶值)
政府和金融巨頭們將會不惜動用各種手段
阻止這一切的發生
最簡單的方法就是像印度政府
持有或交易比特幣判刑
那比特幣就是一攤死水了
目前大部分國家政府不對比特幣動手
恐怕原因就是他們認為比特幣根本不構成威脅
除非今天市場上發生極端黑天鵝事件
所有法幣系統崩盤
此時大家會以其他相對保值的物品進行交易
這時候比特幣或許有機會和黃金一決雌雄
取代黃金的地位
所以結論就是
雖然比特幣有黃金有的優點
甚至沒有黃金有的缺點
但還是打不贏黃金
因為這世界就是這樣
並不一定是有實力的人獲勝
而是看你和誰站在一起
-----
Sent from JPTT on my Asus ASUS_X00QD.
--
小弟也來說說自己的看法
先說結論
我認為BTC只能算是investment vehicle
既不能成為coin也無法store of value
在短期也就是減半之前
會有一波炒作潮
這一波過去後就真的是衰退的開始
無法成為coin的理由就不用多說了
那高昂的手續費無法支付日常的民生消費
在一般大眾衡量一件物品的昂貴或便宜
只會以新台幣或美金來衡量
而不是多少satoshi
至於為何無法成為store of value呢?
***因為比特幣打不贏黃金***
大家可能會認為我再亂講
明明黃金有的優點比特幣都有(缺稀性)
甚至黃金沒有的優點
比特幣也都有(易於分割或轉移)
怎麼可能比特幣打不過黃金
且聽我娓娓道來
我理解這件事的角度如下:
在這地球上的資產配置量是有一定的額度的
假設是100兆美元好了,這100兆美元是所有不動產+股票+債券+貴金屬+原物料換算成美金的價格
而這100兆美元的分配率會隨著景氣而流動
比如說
景氣好時股票市值高
景氣差時債券市值高
*景氣崩盤時黃金價格高(這點很重要,容後述)
除非發生了科技或生產技術的重大變革
比如蒸汽機或火車或網路的發明
導致地球上經濟規模有數量級的躍升
地球上的資產配置額度才會有所上升
(比如蒸汽機的發明帶動整個經濟的繁榮,GDP上升後,資產總額從100兆美元上升成1000兆)
目前比特幣的發明
並沒有造成整個經濟的規模有數量級的提升
(或許區塊鏈可以,但不是比特幣本身)
也就是說目前地球上的資產總額基本不變
所以比特幣如果真的要to the moon
他必須從其他的資產吸價值過來
從誰身上吸呢?
就是和他有類似角色的黃金上來吸
(比特幣市值升,黃金市值貶)
但是,but
事情最為重要就是這個but
***比特幣無法從黃金上吸價值過來***
簡單說這是一場
金融巨頭+政府vs網路怪客的戰爭
因為目前掌握黃金最多的就是各國政府
和各大金融巨頭
今天比特幣如果能成為交易媒介的話
那這股力量將如大江大海吞噬一切
當一般大眾衡量物價的便宜或昂貴
是以多少satoshi而不是多少台幣或美元時
比特幣將成為主流資產
但是如果僅僅是store of value
當比特幣要吸黃金的價值過來時
(造成比特幣升值,黃金貶值)
政府和金融巨頭們將會不惜動用各種手段
阻止這一切的發生
最簡單的方法就是像印度政府
持有或交易比特幣判刑
那比特幣就是一攤死水了
目前大部分國家政府不對比特幣動手
恐怕原因就是他們認為比特幣根本不構成威脅
除非今天市場上發生極端黑天鵝事件
所有法幣系統崩盤
此時大家會以其他相對保值的物品進行交易
這時候比特幣或許有機會和黃金一決雌雄
取代黃金的地位
所以結論就是
雖然比特幣有黃金有的優點
甚至沒有黃金有的缺點
但還是打不贏黃金
因為這世界就是這樣
並不一定是有實力的人獲勝
而是看你和誰站在一起
-----
Sent from JPTT on my Asus ASUS_X00QD.
--
Tags:
數位貨幣
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