到底是因為反指標?還是因為反串造成的? - 手機討論

By Aaliyah
at 2017-12-24T22:31
at 2017-12-24T22:31
Table of Contents
前陣子看板上一直反指標來反指標去的,
就算是過去被人揶揄護板神機的時候,
好像也沒有今年這麼嚴重,覺得整個很奇怪啊,
這狀況真的能夠被講成:『反指標』嗎?
仔細想想PTT手機板平時流動人數上千人,
一般國內抽樣調查也就一千多人就能滿足信心水準,
即便考量取樣問題,好像也不太可能因為什麼同溫層泡泡,
而跟現實世界有甚麼巨大差異,那這樣說起來,會不會有可能根本不是反指標,
而是『反串』造成的呢?或是輿論推薦的不被信任,被看成『反推薦』了?
不過我覺得好像很難舉出足以佐證風向統計,
頂多就是舉一點以人為主的例子來看
以被酸反指標最多的今年當例子
2/7
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MobileComm/M.1486427632.A.7A7.html
5/26
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MobileComm/M.1495783282.A.225.html
11/15
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MobileComm/M.1510676747.A.53D.html
然後根據今年跟去年的結果來看
http://www.setn.com/News.aspx?NewsID=209520
http://www.eprice.com.tw/mobile/talk/102/5045124/1/
去年11月宏達電的銷售量市占有11%,今年11月跌到剩6.9%
這邊比的是去年年底的hTC 10 evo在主打的那幾個月
明顯的的結論是hTC沒有慢慢變更好,U11/U11+更完全沒有賣很好這回事
這只是拿人當例子,
我也不太知道該怎麼統計風向這件事( ′-`)y-~
到底真的有所謂的反指標風向的這種情況嗎?
假設真的有,那為什麼這個風向帶起的推薦
卻又不被消費者信任呢?(因為錯誤印象太多?)
確實這不是甚麼非黑即白的問題,可是感覺好複雜阿( ̄▽ ̄#)﹏﹏
--
就算是過去被人揶揄護板神機的時候,
好像也沒有今年這麼嚴重,覺得整個很奇怪啊,
這狀況真的能夠被講成:『反指標』嗎?
仔細想想PTT手機板平時流動人數上千人,
一般國內抽樣調查也就一千多人就能滿足信心水準,
即便考量取樣問題,好像也不太可能因為什麼同溫層泡泡,
而跟現實世界有甚麼巨大差異,那這樣說起來,會不會有可能根本不是反指標,
而是『反串』造成的呢?或是輿論推薦的不被信任,被看成『反推薦』了?
不過我覺得好像很難舉出足以佐證風向統計,
頂多就是舉一點以人為主的例子來看
以被酸反指標最多的今年當例子
2/7
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MobileComm/M.1486427632.A.7A7.html
→ eye1234 : 我走錯版惹嗎?u ultra才剛開賣沒多久評價就不差,`02/07 10:29
→ eye1234 : 後htc應該會慢慢變更好吧02/07 10:29
5/26
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MobileComm/M.1495783282.A.225.html
→ HsuaChien : HTC U11感覺賣得不錯啊很多開箱..現在官網有貨可訂 05/26 15:48
11/15
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MobileComm/M.1510676747.A.53D.html
→ annie0989712: 看起來評價是都不錯,應該也是賣很好11/15 09:07
然後根據今年跟去年的結果來看
http://www.setn.com/News.aspx?NewsID=209520
http://www.eprice.com.tw/mobile/talk/102/5045124/1/
去年11月宏達電的銷售量市占有11%,今年11月跌到剩6.9%
這邊比的是去年年底的hTC 10 evo在主打的那幾個月
明顯的的結論是hTC沒有慢慢變更好,U11/U11+更完全沒有賣很好這回事
這只是拿人當例子,
我也不太知道該怎麼統計風向這件事( ′-`)y-~
到底真的有所謂的反指標風向的這種情況嗎?
假設真的有,那為什麼這個風向帶起的推薦
卻又不被消費者信任呢?(因為錯誤印象太多?)
確實這不是甚麼非黑即白的問題,可是感覺好複雜阿( ̄▽ ̄#)﹏﹏
--
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手機
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