話說回來 甚麼時候開始流行帶手機進浴室的 - 手機討論

By Rachel
at 2017-02-08T07:40
at 2017-02-08T07:40
Table of Contents
有些鄉民鄉民有個毛病,很喜歡用個人實證來否定機率性問題的存在性。
三星Note 7爆炸其實客觀來看,到回收截止,真正爆炸的手機佔比非常少,
但遠高於其他市售手機,所以被全面回收了。其他回收前沒爆炸的手機,當
然可以主張他的手機沒爆炸,但總體來說,Note 7爆炸機率超過了FAA的容許
程度也遠高過其他手機。
再舉個最極端的例子,前蘇聯被派去車諾比破洞的反應爐圍阻體附近救災的
士兵,有些也存活沒事, 這些人當然可以在晚年fb發文說:我被反應爐直接
照射都沒死。如果你看了這發文,就深信人可以接受反應爐直接照射這種結
論, 那也OK。
一盆水,空氣中的濕氣和熱水蒸氣是完全不同的東西。用個最簡單的生活例子
汽機車後視鏡經常要淋雨,但是通常到了報廢之前,鏡面都和出廠時狀態差不
了多少(刮痕髒污先不論)。不過裝在浴室裏的化粧鏡,隨著越靠近熱水蓮篷
頭的距離越近,出現腐蝕的速度越快,狀況也越嚴重。或許品質超一流的化粧
鏡玻璃可以減緩這情況, 但比起經常淋雨洗車的後視鏡的狀況是天差地遠。
手機手錶遇到蒸氣,就像上述的靠近熱水蓮篷頭化粧鏡,破壞程度隨著使用條
件不一致而結果也不同。而且廠商的設計條件不同也影響最終結果,少數設計
條件較不夠強的廠商,只要達到Note 7的爆炸機率情況,就會形成兩派眾說紛
紜的說法,一部分人真的就爆了,絕大部分人會說我怎樣操都沒事。但是就主
管機關就整體機率來檢視的觀點,Note 7就是必須拒絕它上飛機。
熱水蒸氣對精密電子設備的破壞性是早就有文章可查的,有可能突破少部分機
子的防水就像化粧鏡狀況惡化一樣,也是有前例可循的。有些人帶進浴室洗澡
都沒壞也是事實,不過你不知道他洗澡時手機放置的距離(如同化粧鏡距蓮篷
頭的遠近會影響惡化速度)、洗澡水溫、洗多久、多久洗一次澡、水量大小等
等因素都不清楚,在某甲的條件下,說不定撑不到3年,但他3年不到就換機了。
某乙的條件撑不到1年,就上媒體了。更倒霉的是組裝狀況不如其他同型機的
可能幾個月就回原廠維修了,如同剛開賣沒多久就首爆的 Note 7。
總之,機率性問題除非自己確實掌握大量實驗數據及實驗條件,否則連故障機
率在多少時間內是多少都不知道,要選擇為方便而冒險,也是個人自由。就像
飆車也不是每飆必死(只要飆車死亡率3成,應該飆車就大幅減少了,不減少也
會自然死光,就像伊波拉一樣),但用我飆到現在都沒死來否定飆車危險性高
就是謬誤,做了選擇就接受可能的後果,這樣就可以了。
--
三星Note 7爆炸其實客觀來看,到回收截止,真正爆炸的手機佔比非常少,
但遠高於其他市售手機,所以被全面回收了。其他回收前沒爆炸的手機,當
然可以主張他的手機沒爆炸,但總體來說,Note 7爆炸機率超過了FAA的容許
程度也遠高過其他手機。
再舉個最極端的例子,前蘇聯被派去車諾比破洞的反應爐圍阻體附近救災的
士兵,有些也存活沒事, 這些人當然可以在晚年fb發文說:我被反應爐直接
照射都沒死。如果你看了這發文,就深信人可以接受反應爐直接照射這種結
論, 那也OK。
一盆水,空氣中的濕氣和熱水蒸氣是完全不同的東西。用個最簡單的生活例子
汽機車後視鏡經常要淋雨,但是通常到了報廢之前,鏡面都和出廠時狀態差不
了多少(刮痕髒污先不論)。不過裝在浴室裏的化粧鏡,隨著越靠近熱水蓮篷
頭的距離越近,出現腐蝕的速度越快,狀況也越嚴重。或許品質超一流的化粧
鏡玻璃可以減緩這情況, 但比起經常淋雨洗車的後視鏡的狀況是天差地遠。
手機手錶遇到蒸氣,就像上述的靠近熱水蓮篷頭化粧鏡,破壞程度隨著使用條
件不一致而結果也不同。而且廠商的設計條件不同也影響最終結果,少數設計
條件較不夠強的廠商,只要達到Note 7的爆炸機率情況,就會形成兩派眾說紛
紜的說法,一部分人真的就爆了,絕大部分人會說我怎樣操都沒事。但是就主
管機關就整體機率來檢視的觀點,Note 7就是必須拒絕它上飛機。
熱水蒸氣對精密電子設備的破壞性是早就有文章可查的,有可能突破少部分機
子的防水就像化粧鏡狀況惡化一樣,也是有前例可循的。有些人帶進浴室洗澡
都沒壞也是事實,不過你不知道他洗澡時手機放置的距離(如同化粧鏡距蓮篷
頭的遠近會影響惡化速度)、洗澡水溫、洗多久、多久洗一次澡、水量大小等
等因素都不清楚,在某甲的條件下,說不定撑不到3年,但他3年不到就換機了。
某乙的條件撑不到1年,就上媒體了。更倒霉的是組裝狀況不如其他同型機的
可能幾個月就回原廠維修了,如同剛開賣沒多久就首爆的 Note 7。
總之,機率性問題除非自己確實掌握大量實驗數據及實驗條件,否則連故障機
率在多少時間內是多少都不知道,要選擇為方便而冒險,也是個人自由。就像
飆車也不是每飆必死(只要飆車死亡率3成,應該飆車就大幅減少了,不減少也
會自然死光,就像伊波拉一樣),但用我飆到現在都沒死來否定飆車危險性高
就是謬誤,做了選擇就接受可能的後果,這樣就可以了。
--
Tags:
手機
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